Black Friday Deals for the Indians

With the caveat that players are people not things for sale, I would like to examine some possible options for the Indians as they shop for bargains this Black Friday and afterwards:

1B/DH - Justin Smoak, Switch-hitter - Estimated Cost: $4-5 million
Going into his age 33 season, Smoak is projected for 1.3 WAR and a 112 wRC+ by Steamer. He should fall to a one-year deal, and we know how Francona loves his switch-hitters. Smoak had the highest hard-hit ball percentage of his career last year at 42.7%, which would have put him third on the Indians (behind Franmil Reyes and Carlos Santana). The priorities for the Indians should be finding a fit at 2B/3B or the outfield, but if they feel optimistic about Reyes being able to play right-field full-time, Smoak could be an affordable option.

Other names to consider: Eric Thames and Ryan Zimmerman.

2B - Jedd Gyorko, RH - Estimated cost: $3-4 million
Gyorko will be 31, and he is projected for 1 WAR and a 101 wRC+. He is not a lineup changing player, but has held his own at second-base defensively during his career. Gyorko also set his career high in hard-hit balls last season, with 42.6%, which puts him right behind Smoak. Especially, if the Indians could get Gyorko on a one-year deal, it could be a nice bridge for Nolan Jones.

Other names to consider: Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, or Devon Travis.

3B - Wilmer Flores, RH - Estimated Cost: 2 year contract for $3-4 million per year
Behind Kendrick, Flores is my preference of the free agents available to play second-base or third-base. In 350 at-bats, he is projected for 1.2 WAR and 111 wRC+, so, a full-season of at-bats could inch him closer to 2 WAR. He also set a career-high in hard-hit ball percentage last season (37.4%) and wOBA at .358. His numbers have been far better at third than at second, so I'd play him there, and for 2021, if it's a two-year deal, he could be a bench-bat/DH.

Other names to consider: Todd Frazier and Matt Duffy

OF - Corey Dickerson, LF - Estimated Cost: $5-6 million
Dickerson has long been suggested as a trade or free agency option on LGT. He really is best used as a platoon player with a 125 wRC+ against RHP in his career. In an ideal world, the Indians could sign him as insurance in case Daniel Johnson or Tyler Naquin aren't ready to serve in the role as LH platoon hitter. But, it's hard for me to imagine the Indians spending precious resources on him. I think the best outfield options are only available in trades (Marte and Haniger, for example), unless the Indians are willing to get into the bidding for Puig and Ozuna, who may be bargains in their own right.

Other names to consider: Avisail Garcia and a return trip for Matt Joyce (I find that very unlikely)

Bullpen - Shawn Kelley, RHP - Estimated Cost: Minor-league free agent
I feel like the bullpen is a crapshoot, always, but he had a down year in Texas, which is a tough place to pitch. He has had sensational years not that long ago. What are the chances Niebla and Willis can get him back to those 20-30% K/BB rates of a couple years ago? I think it's a possibility. He's a Tyler Clippard-type, and can throw a bit harder.

Other names to consider: Tyler Clippard, Aaron Loup, Pat Neshak, Jeremy Jeffress.

Who did I miss? Let me know who is on your list this Black Friday in the comments below

Off-Season Plans for the 2020 Cleveland Indians

Ok, so, just to get this out of the way, my ideal off-season is extending Lindor, Clevinger, and Bieber forever. And, then signing Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, and Will Harris. Oh, and Yasiel Puig just for the fun of having him. So, now that I've said that, I'm going to try to look at what the Indians could realistically do in the coming months:

First, the projected 40-man roster, with accompanying salaries for each player (in millions, any player not noted otherwise is on the league minimum when on the 26-man roster)

C. Santana - $16.83
Carrasco - $10.25
J. Ramirez - $6.65
Hand - $7.58
R. Perez - $3.62
O. Perez - $3
Kluber - $17.5
Lindor - $16.7
Clevinger - $4.5
Plawecki - $1.5
Wittgren - $1.3
Naquin - $1.8
L. Allen
Arroyo
Bauers
Bieber
Bradley
Chang
Cimber
Civale
M. Freeman
Hentges
Hoyt
Johnson
Karinchak
Luplow
McKenzie
Mercado
Mejia
Moss
Plesac* - To be traded in below plans
Plutko
Rodriguez
Reyes
Tom
Velazquez
Wood
Zimmer

That's 38, so, to begin with, the Indians may retain Allen and Goody (or Anderson and Haase). Ultimately, I'm advocating to release/trade Olson, Haase, Greg Allen, Goody, Cole, Salazar, Maton and Anderson.

Free Agency Moves:
Sign Scooter Gennett, 2B, for $6 million, with a mutual option for $7 million for 2021.
Sign on a minor-league deals Gerardo Parra, Aaron Loup and Shawn Kelley.

Trades
Zach Plesac and Brayan Rocchio to Pittsburgh Pirates for Starling Marte ($11.5 million) and Keone Kela ($4.5 million).


Payroll ends up around $127 million in this scenario, with a 26-man roster something like:

1. Lindor, SS
2. JRam, 3B
3. Santana, 1B
4. Reyes, DH
5. Marte, RF
6. Luplow/Johnson/Naquin, LF
7. Gennett, 2B
8. Perez, C
9. Mercado, CF

Bench: Plawecki, C, Tom, OF, Freeman, IF/OF, Arroyo, IF

Rotation: 1. Clevinger, 2. Bieber, 3. Kluber, 4. Carrasco, 5. Civale
Bullpen: 1. Wood, 2. Cimber, 3. Wittgren, 4. Karinchak, 5. Perez, 6. Hoyt, 7. Kela, 8. Hand

Additional REALISTIC Free Agent Options I'd Like the Indians to Consider (ranked):

1. Mike Moustakas, IF
2. Yasiel Puig, OF
3. Nick Castellanos, OF
4. Wilmer Flores, IF
5. Kole Calhoun, OF
6. Howie Kendrick, IF
7. Jonathan Schoop, IF
8. Brian Dozier, IF
9. Avisail Garcia, OF
10. Brock Holt, IF

(Gennet would rank fourth on this list for me. I'd also consider Smoak, but it makes Reyes a full-time outfielder).

Additional Possible Trade Targets for the Indians to Consider (ranked):

1. Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs
2. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners
3. Brian Anderson, OF/IF, Marlins
4. Whit Merrifield, IF/OF, Royals
5. Jorge Soler, OF, Royals
6. Trey Mancini, OF/DH, Orioles
7. David Fletcher, IF, Angels
8. Jackie Bradley, Jr., Red Sox
9. Randal Grichuk, OF, Blue Jays
10. Adam Frazier, IF, Pirates

There are a variety of ways the Indians can put a championship contender on the field for next season, but it's going to require increasing the payroll at least slightly from last year's number. None of us knows what the Dolans are planning to do where money is concerned, but I am hoping that $125-$130 million is in the realm of possibility. I would also love to see the Indians extend Clevinger and Bieber this year, but if that happens, we likely need to set our sights lower in terms of other additions.

All salaries are estimates based on information from MLB Trade Rumors.