I remain convinced that the Indians are unlikely to make a deal this deadline. Too little information about prospects due to the absence of a minor league season makes a swap of major league players the most likely type of deal, and those kind of moves are rare. Plus, how do teams view their chances in this odd season? Worth risking something on, or better to regroup for 2021? It's impossible to say.
But, I do love playing GM, so here is a list of 15 players I'd like to see the Indians target to address their abysmal outfield situation, and a couple prospects to keep in mind:
1. Joey Gallo, OF, Texas Rangers ($4.4 this year, 2 years of team control left) 110 wRC+ in 2020 - Gallo is my favorite option out there. I'm a believer in some of the changes he made last year as a hitter, and he could anchor the middle of the order for the next two years.
2. Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets ($3.3 this year, 2 years left) 159 wRC+ - Are the Mets going to be sellers? Who knows, but they actually have a little bit of excess outfield talent. Would they be interested in prospects, or possibly in Mike Clevinger? No one knows, but if they are interested, Nimmo is the guy who would instantly change the Cleveland roster the most, I think. He only has a 45 FV from FanGraphs, but with a career 133 wRC+ in 1200 PA, he seems like as good a shot to surpass those expectations as any. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like he should be playing in centerfield, so he'd have to be a corner outfielder where he is competent.
3. Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets ($8 million, 1 year left) 162 wRC+ in 2020 - A great hitter with a career 126 wRC+ and a decent defender as a corner outfielder, underused in New York, and has had some injury trouble. You wouldn't want to give up a lot to have him for just 2021, though.
4. Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals ($7.3, 1 year left) 121 wRC+ in 2020. - Do our friends the Royals want to help us out for a nice little prospect return? Soler is not a good fielder, but he has been a solid middle of the order hitter over the last couple seasons, putting up 123 and 136 wRC+'s in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
5. J.D. Davis, OF, NYM (4 years of control left) 144 wRC+ in 2020 - I'm a believer in that bat that put up a 136 wRC+ last year, despite his 40 FV from FanGraphs, but Davis is not a good fielder at third, a terrible fielder in the outfield, and perhaps competent at first base. Again, hard to say if the Mets are sellers, but, with a permanent DH likely, they may not be especially willing to move Davis with the amount of team control he has left, anyway.
6. Ian Happ, OF, Chicago Cubs (pre-arb, 3 years of control left) 167 wRC+ in 2020 - I've always liked Happ, but trading for him now would definitely be buying high. He does have a 55 FV from FanGraphs, but, with the Cubs firmly in the playoffs, hard to imagine a deal for him benefiting both teams equally, even though the Cubs could use more pitching.
7. Mike Yastrzemski, OF, San Francisco Giants (30 years old, pre-arb, 5 years left) 185 wRC+ in 2020 - The Tribe would be buying at the absolute high here. He's old for a guy who finally made it last year, but, if you buy the gaudy numbers, could be a great asset for the next few years if you're willing to pay the price it would take to pry him away. I feel like the Giants will trade him either prior to this deadline or in the off-season because his peak doesn't really fit with their rebuilding plans.
8. David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks ($7.33m AAV, 2 years left) 118 wRC+ in 2020 - Often mentioned in connection to the Indians by fans, it seems like Arizona would be willing to deal him... he is 33 years old, but has a career 116 wRC+ which seems as good a bet as any to continue for the next couple years.
9. Chris Taylor, IF/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers ($6.7, 1 year left) 120 wRC+ in 2020 - Taylor is an example of a good player (109 wRC+ for his career and solid-great fielding numbers all over the diamond) who would probably look like an all-star in comparison to the Tribe outfielders. He is not great in center-field, but not unplayable there, and we know that the Indians and Dodgers have talked this off-season. Would the Dodgers throw in one of their better prospects (some listed below) with Taylor for Clevinger?
10. Starling Marte, OF, Arizona Diamonbacks (2021 club option, $11.5m AAV) 119 wRC+ in 2020 - Allow me to be bitter and say that Marte should be on the Indians right now. The club should have done what it took to acquire him in a trade. So, what better time to make things right but now! I suspect the amount of money he is owed makes this very unlikely, which is a shame.
11. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees (pre-arb) 186 wRC+ in 8 games in 2020 - Baby, come back! You can blame it all on me! Frazier is a favorite of every team dreaming of trading for a bat. He's got some injury history and maybe some attitude concerns, but his 55 FV is fun to dream on as well as his bat. He's not a good fielder, though (-15.9 UZR/150 for his short major league career in the outfield).
12. Kevin Pillar, OF, Boston Red Sox ($4.25m, FA 2021) 112 wRC+ in 2020 - I bet Pillar moves before the deadline, but his career 87 wRC+ doesn't do anything for me. He's a good fielder and would likely put up better offensive numbers for this year than any Cleveland outfielder not named Naquin (apologies to D. Santana and Luplow, doesn't look like it's happening this year).
13. Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays ($10.4m AAV, 3 years left) 135 wRC+ in 2020 - He is just owed too much money for too long and his career wRC+ is only 106. I don't see this happening. He is at least a decent fielder in the corners, though.
14. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - ($7.75m, FA in 2021) 89 wRC+ in 2020 - I feel like Pederson is due for a huge second half (only sporting a .183 BABIP right now), but he is strictly a rental for September of 2020 and a potential playoff run.
15. Miguel Andujar, 3B/OF, New York Yankees - (pre-arb, 3 years left) -39 wRC+ in 2020 - While his wRC+ would fit right in on our team right now, Andujar has a 60 FV from FanGraphs which reflects his immense power potential. Problem is, I do not trust the Indians' hitting staff to unlock that potential. Also, Andujar's fielding is poor enough where he may have to DH.
Some Prospects To Watch
Drew Waters, CF, Atlanta – Not a lot of pop, but a 55 FV. It certainly seems like the Braves would pay for an Indians' starter, but I'm not sure Pache or Waters really solve our outfield issues.
Brandon Marsh, OF, LAA - Marsh is a 55FV prospect with a lot to like, but it's hard to know what the Angels are trying to do right now. They definitely need pitching.
Keibert Ruiz, C, LAD – 50 FV and a bat you can dream on. I hope the Indians have their eyes open for possible replacements for Bebo. As much as I absolutely love the guy, you can't count on him holding up for too many more seasons. I like Ruiz a lot.
DJ Peters, CF, LAD – I like him. Lots of pop, and while he only has a 40 FV, perhaps he is the kind of player who could be packaged with Taylor for Clevinger.
Matt Beaty. 1B/OF, LAD - Has looked pretty decent in some major league time with the Dodgers. A 40 FV from FanGraphs, a player with some pop.
Estevan Florial, OF, NYY – A 45 FV 22 year old you can dream on a bit. It all depends on how the Indians see him, but I'd kinda prefer acquiring him to Frazier; it doesn't help in 2020 and possibly not in 2021, though. Might be worth it just to punish Clev by sending him to the Yankees, but I probably shouldn't be a vindictive fake GM.
Bottom Line
I'd love to hear your thoughts on which of these players you'd like to see the Indians acquire and what players I might have overlooked. My main prediction, as I said, is that there will not be a move, but if I were to pick someone on this list I think the Indians would most likely acquire I think a trade would be something like Chris Taylor and DJ Peters from the Dodgers for Clevinger. I know from experience that some people will say this is far too much for Clevinger and others will say it is far too little. This tells me that it's probably in the neighborhood of fair value, but I enjoy hearing different thoughts and re-evaluating things, so let me know!
