Solving the Indians' Outfield Problem - Part 2: Free Agents

In part 1 of this series I looked at the possible trade options for outfielders the Indians might consider to improve their outlook in the outfield for 2020. Here, we will take a look at ten free agent options still available. Again, I list each player's projected wRC+ for 2020, their career splits in wRC+, and their career Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games.

Free Agents

Marcell Ozuna – 119 wRC+ (126, 109) 25 DRS, 4.7 UZR/150
Notes: With the best offensive numbers available among free agents and solid career defensive numbers, I think Ozuna is the cream of the crop as far as outfielders the Indians could sign go. And, if this were any kind of a normal team, I’d feel cautiously optimistic about the fact that Ozuna’s market seems to be pretty slow, hopeful that the Indians could sweep in with the right deal. But, I have zero expectations that the Dolans will be willing to okay even something like a three-year $45 million deal to dramatically improve one of our corner outfield spots and provide a middle of the order bat. Sad, but that’s the reality of things, currently.

Nicholas Castellanos – 112 wRC+ (137, 104) -36 DRS, -11.6 UZR/150
Notes: Castellanos has been a terrible outfielder, but his numbers improved ever so slightly there last year. Despite having Boras as an agent, I doubt he is getting big money because he is the best fit as a DH somewhere. His value also comes mainly from crushing LHP, and the Indians have Franmil Reyes for that. I’d have been happy to have traded for Castellanos for the stretch run last year, but I don’t really want to sign him this off-season. He’d be a clear improvement over our current options for corner outfield/DH, but I think the Indians’ resources could be invested more wisely in other players.

Yasiel Puig – 111 wRC+ (109, 130), 40 DRS, 2.6 UZR/150
Notes: Many of us fell in love with Puig during his time here, if we weren’t already in love with the hot-headed, wild Cuban horse. I mean, the night he was traded to Cleveland he tried to fight the entire city of Pittsburgh – is it any wonder that we long to have him back? Puig is a great fit because he hits RHP very well. It’s fair to wonder if he will ever reach the slugging potential he has – he looks like he’s going to average out to about a 2-win per year outfielder, but there’s always the potential for more with him. I feel it’s unlikely the Indians will give out a two-year deal to an outfielder, and I have to believe Puig will get that from someone. But, if Puig signs somewhere else for one-year and $8-10 million, we should riot.

Alex Gordon – 94 wRC+ (96, 107) 125 DRS, 9.2 UZR/150
Notes: All rumors I’ve heard are that Gordon wants to end his career in Kansas City, which is fine. Recently, I heard that he will sign with the Royals by the end of the week. Good for him. But, if he should decide to show his old team what they’re missing, why not head over to Cleveland for a summer? You’ll still see the Royals 19 times, Alex, and your solid numbers against RHP are a good fit here. Are you ok with a platoon role, if needed, though? Lmk.

Domingo Santana – 105 wRC+ (119, 109) -31 DRS, -11.9 UZR/150
Notes: Santana is a terrible outfielder. He’s an above average hitter, and has the potential to carry a team offensively at times. If the Indians sign him, one of our corner outfield spots is going to be a black hole defensively between Santana or Reyes, but he does seem like the kind of player who could fall into the Dolan’s allowable price range.

Steven Souza, Jr. – 104 wRC+ (108, 101) 5 DRS, -1 UZR/150
Notes: After missing a year due to extensive knee surgery, Souza is back looking for a job. There’s a ton of risk here, of course, but if Souza gets to the point of looking for a minor-league deal, I’d hope the Indians would be at the front of the line to get him into camp. I also wouldn’t be opposed to a one-year $3-4 million major league deal for him, even as a right-handed hitter. Why? Because our current outfield options have proven nothing at the major league level or are huge defensive liabilities, just in case you’ve forgotten.

Matt Joyce – 105 wRC+ (63, 122) -8 DRS, 0 UZR/150
Notes: Remember Joyce? He got cut by the Tribe at the end of camp, then had a season that demonstrated that was the wrong choice. Was Joyce amazing? No. Was he CLEARLY superior to Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Gonzalez? Yes, 1,000 times yes. Who knows what Joyce thinks about Cleveland after his experience with them last spring, but, if it wasn’t for that history, this is exactly the kind of player I’d be expecting the Indians to sign to a one-year deal.

Kevin Pillar – 88 wRC+ (103, 81) 60 DRS, 6.5 UZR/150
Notes: I do not want another defensive-first outfielder who cannot hit right-handed pitching.

Carlos Gomez – 83 wRC+ (93, 96) 79 DRS, 6.9 UZR/150
Notes: Gomez used to be a decent player. He is not anymore. If he got a minor-league deal here, I wouldn’t be mad, because what’s the risk?

Lonnie Chisenhall – 83 wRC+ (92, 104) 8 DRS, 3.1 UZR/150
Notes: Some have clamored for a reunion with Chisenhall. I have not. From his last year with the Indians to his time with the Pirates, Chisenhall has developed a reputation for spending more time golfing than rehabbing. There’s some LH thump left there, of course, but good luck getting him to stay on the field.

Free-Agent Options Ranked in Desirability and Fit:
1. Ozuna, 2. Puig, 3. Joyce, 4. Gordon, 5. Castellanos, 6. Santana, 7. Souza, 8. Pillar, 9. Gomez, 10. Chisenhall.
Free-Agent Options Ranked in Likelihood the Indians Sign Them:
1. Santana, 2. Souza, 3. Puig, 4. Gordon, 5. Gomez, 6. Joyce, 7. Pillar, 8. Ozuna, 9. Castellanos, 10. Chisenhall

Bottom Line: I think the Indians probably end up with one of these players in camp on a minor-league deal. It feels like Santana or Souza, to me, because both seem likely to end up with minor-league deals. The off-season is at the point where a Puig (or, please, God, an Ozuna) signing would likely make just about every engaged Indians’ fan thrilled with the team entering Spring Training, but it just doesn’t feel like the team is going to invest that kind of money in any player. Of course, the Front Office has moved in relative silence before, so, until the end of March and until all the decent free agents sign, we can remain hopeful that the Indians will make a move to shore up the weakest part of the team and gear up for a run at another Central division title.

Solving the Indians' Outfield Problem - Part 1: Trade Possibilities

It has been another fairly unexciting winter for the Indians. Sure, there has been the occasional anxiety-inducing trade rumor involving Francisco Lindor or Mike Clevinger, there was the trade of Corey Kluber for a high-risk, high-reward reliever and a fourth-outfielder, and of course they signed, Cesar Hernandez, a slightly above-average second-baseman, but here we are entering the first full week of January and the Indians seem set to open the season with a payroll a good $30 million less than last year’s total. Meanwhile, the Cleveland outfield looks like Oscar Mercado and a bunch of question marks. Can Jordan Luplow hit right-handed pitching enough to become a full-time option? Can Franmil Reyes lose a little bulk and become a decent option to put in right-field? Or, can a valuable full-time or even platoon option emerge from the ranks of Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, Daniel Johnson, Ka’ai Tom and the aforementioned Delino Deshields? When will Tyler Naquin be healthy enough to resume a full-time or platoon role (likely not until May at the earliest).

The disappointment of another payroll reduction would be lessened for many fans if the Indians just added one more proven outfield option. Many names have been bandied about, but, few, if any have been rumored in connection with the Indians by National writers. In the absence of said rumors, I have undertaken to come up with as comprehensive a list of the possibilities the Indians might consider and offer my opinion about which options might be the best fit and which option I find the most likely to actually find their way into an Indians uniform come March.

This first article will discuss the possible trade targets the Indians might consider. I have listed each player, their projected Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) for the coming season, their career major league splits for wRC+ in parentheses, and their career Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating in 150 defensive games (UZR/150), plus their salary (when relevant) and years of team control remaining.

Trade Possibilities

The Game-Changers

1. Joc Pederson, Dodgers – 129 wRC+ (57, 133), -2 DRS, 0.2 UZR/150, ($5 milllion, FA next year)
Notes: The Dodgers’ outfield is reasonably crowded, so, especially if they end up making a move for Mookie Betts or the like, they could look to move Pederson for his last year under contract. The Indians and Dodgers have talked a lot this winter about Lindor, and possibly Clevinger – might there be an understanding from which they could work out a Pederson deal? I find this possibility very unlikely, not believing the Dodgers will trade Pederson or that the Indians will give up either a Brad Hand or a top prospect for one year of any player, but Pederson crushes right-handed pitching and would be an immediate fit in Cleveland.

2. Kyle Schwarber, Cubs – 123 wRC+ (76, 125), -11 DRS, 6 UZR/150 (2 years of arbitration)
Notes: Most of us probably have PTSD when we hear Schwarber’s name, after Joe Buck’s effusive praise of this reincarnation of Babe Ruth during the 2016 World Series. But, the Cubs seem to be looking to unload some salary, so it is possible there could be a fit here. Schwarber wouldn’t be a good outfielder, but he’s probably better than Reyes would be, and he’d fit in perfectly as a left-handed slugger. With that said, I find it unlikely the Cubs move him and even more unlikely that the Indians give up the prospects or take on the arbitration figure necessary to acquire him.

3. Starling Marte, Pirates – 109 wRC+ (108, 119) 71 DRS, 3.7 UZR/150, (2 years, $11.5 million)
Notes: I still think Marte will get moved by the Pirates, but, perhaps not until July, unless they get the package that forces their hand now. Marte’s reverse splits here make him a great fit, and his outstanding defense is a big plus. Rumors were that the Pirates wanted a catcher for Marte. I say if the Indians’ offer rising, top-shelf prospect Bo Naylor and one of their young pitchers (Hentges, Hankins, Oviedo…), the deal would be done. But, I don’t think the Indians will give up the prospect capital or take on the amount of money Marte has left on his deal. But, I’d be one happy fan if they did.

4. Mitch Haniger, Mariners – 110 wRC+ (125, 124), 15 DRS, 0.8 UZR/150 (3 years of arbitration)
Notes: I’ve been all aboard the trade for Haniger train for a while now, but his late season back injury threw me off, a bit. He’s outperformed his projections and expectations in his major league career so far, and I’m afraid his injury troubles might bring him back to earth. With that said, Seattle GM Jerry DiPoto is always one to make a deal, so it’s hard for me to imagine that if the Indians came knocking with a top prospect like Nolan Jones or George Valera and a pitching prospect, that Trader Jerry wouldn’t pull the trigger. It’s the kind of deal I’d love the Indians to make, to cash in their chips and make a run for these last two years of Lindor being here. But, it’s also the kind of deal that it has become increasingly clear they have no interest in pursuing.

The Clear Upgrades

1. Trey Mancini, Orioles – 113 wRC+ (108, 118) -21 DRS, -11.4 UZR/150, (3 years of arbitration)
Notes: Mancini is a terrible outfielder and best suited to play DH. But, he is a very good hitter, and, he also hits right-handed pitching better than lefties, which is a good fit. However, he is Baltimore’s best (and only?) trade chip, and rumors are that they have set a high asking price. Again, I’d love to see the Indians make them an offer they can’t refuse… but I find it extremely unlikely.

2. Brandon Nimmo, Mets – 107 (119, 133), -8 DRS, -2.3 UZR/150, (3 years of arbitration)
Notes: The Mets have been rumored to be in pursuit of Starling Marte. If they can acquire him, a player like Nimmo might become available, perhaps as part of a three-team deal. He’s not a great outfielder, but he’s playable, and he has put up fantastic numbers against right-handed pitching. There are a ton of moving parts here, but IF Nimmo was made available, it’s hard for me not to believe the Indians wouldn’t do all they could to be in on him. It’s still very unlikely, all around.

3. David Peralta, Diamondbacks – 109 wRC+ (79, 129), 26 DRS, 1.7 UZR/150, Just extended for 3 years and $21.5 million.
Notes: Coming off an injury and having just signed an extension, I doubt the Diamondbacks want to trade him or the Indians would be interested in him. But, his strong, left-handed bat would look great on this team if Arizona decided to make him available. Maybe his is a name to keep in mind for the trade deadline in July, if the Diamondbacks under-perform.

4. Alex Dickerson, Giants – 106 wRC+ (80, 118) 1 DRS, -6.8 UZR/150 (3 years of arbitration)
Notes: This is a name I have come up with completely out of thin air. The Giants are rebuilding, so it would make sense if they made some of their veteran players available. Dickerson is 29 years old, so I don’t think it would take a lot to acquire him. He doesn’t drastically improve things, but he offers a solid, left-handed hitting outfield platoon bat, and all we have right now are left-handed outfielders we hope will be solid and an injured Naquin.

5. Ian Happ, Cubs – 101 wRC+ (121, 85) -4 DRS, 1.7 UZR/150 (4 years of arbitration)
Notes: It seems like the Cubs are always trying to ditch Happ. Him being a right-handed hitter doesn’t quite fit here, but his versatility would be a plus and he would still likely be a better option than all of our current outfielders save Luplow and Mercado. This is the kind of name I’d pay attention for as Spring Training progresses, but, still, unlikely to be moved with this amount of team control left.

The Projects/Prospects/Platoons

1. Chad Pinder, Athletics – 95 wRC+ (112, 88) 20 DRS, 10.3 UZR/150 (3 years of arbitration)
Notes: The only player on this list who has been actually rumored in connection with the Indians, I was surprised to see how good Pinder’s defensive numbers are in the outfield. He’s a better hitter against RHP, which isn’t quite a good fit, but, similar to Happ, he would be an improvement over most of our current options. The A’s won’t be motivated to move him, though, so it will take a good prospect, and all we will get is an average major leaguer in Pinder.

2. David Dahl, Rockies – 93 wRC+ (95, 116) -12 DRS, -1.4 UZR/150 (4 years of arbitration)
Notes: If the Rockies aren’t looking to rebuild, they should be. Dahl is your classic platoon outfielder, and, while his defensive numbers aren’t good, they do not make him unplayable. With the amount of team control he has left, Dahl won’t come as cheaply as a platoon outfielder should, but I think this would be a worthwhile player to pursue for the Indians. Another example of turning a current "F-grade" position into a "C-grade."

3. Billy McKinney, Blue Jays – 93 wRC+ (54, 98) -5 DRS, -3.7 UZR/150 (Pre-arb)
Notes: As a 25 year-old, McKinney is a bit old for a prospect and seems unlikely to get a lot of playing time in Toronto. As the Blue Jays continue to rebuild, you can’t tell me they wouldn’t be interested in a pitching prospect from the Indians. McKinney’s minor league numbers lead me to believe he would be a solid platoon as a left-handed hitting outfielder. Is he a better option than Johnson or Tom? I guess that’s a decision the Indians’ Front Office would have to make with information better than what I have.

4. Dominic Smith, Mets – 91 wRC+ (75, 103), -8 DRS, -30 UZR/150, 4 years of arb left
Notes: A terrible outfielder, I don’t see much to like about Smith. He might hit right-handed pitching well and he’s under team control for a while. Again, if the Mets acquire Marte, he’s the kind of player they might make available.

5. Clint Frazier, Yankees – 91 wRC+ (105, 99) -13 DRS, -17.1 UZR/150 (FA after 2024)
Notes: I’ve never been a fan of the idea of reacquiring Frazier, whom the Indians traded (among others) for Andrew Miller. Plus, the likelihood of the Indians acquiring Frazier while trying to compete for a division title from the Yankees who are also trying to compete for a division title seems very, very slim.

Trade Options Ranked in a combination of Desirability and perceived Availability: 1. Marte, 2. Haniger, 3. Pederson, 4. Schwarber, 5. Mancini, 6. Peralta, 7. A. Dickerson, 8. Happ, 9. Nimmo, 10. Frazier, 11. Pinder, 12. Dahl, 13. McKinney, 14. Smith

Trade Options Ranked in Likelihood of a deal happening: 1. Dahl, 2. McKinney, 3. Pinder, 4. A. Dickerson, 5. Happ, 6. Haniger, 7. Mancini, 8. Smith, 9. Nimmo, 10. Pederson, 11. Marte, 12. Schwarber, 13. Peralta, 14. Frazier.

Bottom Line: I think there are a couple free-agents to keep an eye on (see part 2 of this article coming tomorrow), but the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the Indians will likely make a deal for an outfielder as we get closer to Spring Training or even after pitchers and catchers report. I think someone like Dahl, McKinney, Pinder or Dickerson may make their way here and the Indians will deal from a deep, but not top-heavy farm system to help change an F-grade in a corner outfield spot to a C-grade with someone a little more proven value/higher ceiling than Johnson, Tom and the like.

But, I would not be at all surprise to see them enter the season with the collection of outfielders they currently have, while looking to add one of these names (or someone else) in a trade, if it makes sense with where they are in the standings, in July. That is probably the most likely option of all.