Cleveland Indians at a Crossroads: Which path do they take?

2019 is shaping up to be a disappointing year to be a Cleveland Indians’ fan. Our stars are vastly under-performing and the roster was too thin to sustain these kind of set-backs in the first place. From Jose Ramirez’s disastrous season so far, to Kluber’s ineffective April and Bauer’s ineffective May, to Carrasco’s consistent inconsistency, to Jason Kipnis’s aged ineptitude, to Jake Bauers’ lack of power or consistent hitting… the problems are too numerous to mention. I am officially going on record as thinking that the Indians need to fire hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo. There are too many players who have not met expectations at the plate and who show no signs of adjusting. In fact, I am pretty close to admitting that the Indians need to move on from Tito (they won’t), but, at the very least, Tito needs to get some more help: help that is better versed in the analytical, data-driven side of the game, and to whom the future Hall of Fame manager will be willing to listen.

With that bleak assessment aside, the Indians are at a bit of a crossroads. After the next couple weeks, with series against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Twins, the Indians have the potential to be 15 or more games out of first, if they continue to play at their current level. It would still be mid-June, which leaves time for a spectacular comeback to at least make a bid for a wildcard berth. But, the Indians really need to decide whether or not to shore up their roster for a run in 2019, or turn their attention to 2020 and beyond. Here are the three basic scenarios I see as a possibility:

1. Reinforce for 2019 – Trade prospects for 1-2 hitters who can help shore up the Indians’ lineup for 2019.
2. Retool for 2020 – Trade a combination of major league players – likely Trevor Bauer, Leonys Martin and possibly Brad Hand – and prospects for players who can help in 2020 and beyond.3. Rebuild for 2022 – Trade any major leaguer with value for prospects – Bauer, Martin, Hand, Lindor, Nick Wittgren and possibly Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Santana would be dealt.

My suggested path forward would be to retool for 2020. If the team bounces back and makes a move this year, great, but I think our best hope is to surround Lindor and our pitching staff with some more offensive help for 2020 that would also be under control for 2021 and beyond when Lindor may be gone. With that in mind, here are some possible deals I think the Indians could be offered, depending on which direction they decide to go:

Reinforce for 2019 Trade 1 – Indians deal RHP Luis Oviedo and RHP Jerson Ramirez for Trey Mancini, 1B/OF from Baltimore.
Trade 2 – Indians deal 3B Nolan Jones and RHP Eli Morgan for Anthony Rendon, 3B from Washington.
Trade 3 – Indians deal RF Will Benson for OF Adam Jones from Arizona.

Summary: If the Indians decide to go “all-in” to either catch the Twins or make the wildcard game in 2019, they need to acquire at least three significant hitters. Getting Mancini, Rendon and Jones would effectively remake the 2019 lineup (and require benching or cutting Kipnis and moving Jose Ramirez to second), but it might just be enough to turn things around offensively. It would come at a cost, clearly, with the Indians giving up their best prospect for Rendon as well as several prominent pitching prospects in Oviedo, Morgan and Ramirez. Former top-pick Benson has a high strikeout rate, but is hitting the cover off the ball at Lake County and should be of interest to the Diamondbacks.

Retool for 2020 Trade 1 – Indians deal RHP Luis Oviedo and RHP Jerson Ramirez for Trey Mancini, 1B/OF from Baltimore.
Trade 2 – Indians deal RHP Trevor Bauer and OF Leonys Martin for Luis Urias, 2B and Austin Allen, C from San Diego.
Trade 3 – Indians deal LHP Brad Hand for OF Tyler O’Neil and RHP Ryan Helsley from St. Louis.

Summary: These trades allow the Indians to acquire players who are either established major leaguers or prospects near the majors under team control for a significant period of time. Urias immediately steps into Kipnis’s spot at second, Mancini provides a right-handed bat with pop for the middle of the order, and O’Neil offers another chance at finding a solid corner outfielder with some power. Additionally, Austin Allen offers some pop at catcher or at first if he can’t make it work defensively behind the plate, and Helsley looks like a reliever with real value. I think trades like this would make 2020 look a lot more promising. It IS a significant return for Hand, as I would only trade him if we can get an overpay. The Indians have some promising relievers in Double and Triple A, so I think the bullpen will be all right without Hand. However, I’d only deal him if we get back multiple players ready to help right away at the major league level.

Rebuild for 2022 Trade 1 – Indians deal RHP Trevor Bauer and OF Leonys Martin for Luis Urias, 2B, Logan Allen, LHP and Austin Allen, C from San Diego.
Trade 2 – Indians deal SS Francisco Lindor for SS Wander Franco, RF Jesus Sanchez and LHP Matthew Liberatore from Tampa Bay
Trade 3 – Indians deal RHP Carlos Carrasco for RF Alex Kiriloff and RHP Brusdar Graterol from Minnesota.
Trade 4 – Indians deal LHP Brad Hand for C Keibert Ruiz from Los Angeles Dodgers.

Summary: This is the equivalent of a fire-sale. And, it might also include, as stated above, trades of Santana and Wittgren, if the Indians can find takers. However, the returns for these deals would be significant and provide help both immediately and for 2021 and beyond. If the Indians deal Lindor this year, which I DO NOT recommend, they need to get a crazy return. Perhaps the Rays would pay that kind of return, with their future in Tampa Bay uncertain, and a real chance this year to challenge for a division title. Perhaps the Twins would give up two legitimate prospects for a chance at a starter with elite stuff to help them on their amazing run this year. Each Bauer trade assumes the Padres are wanting to go all in for 2019-2020, and that’s not a sure thing. And, maybe the Dodgers would give up the best catching prospect in baseball to see if Hand could push their team over the top for a World Series run (I feel this last trade is the most unlikely of the bunch). This kind of rebuild is incredibly tough on fans, but these kind of prospects in return would make the Indians the favorites to be division and World Series contenders again in a relatively short amount of time.

I’ll be shocked if this July isn’t active for the Indians. At the very least, I believe Trevor Bauer will be dealt. I also HOPE that they will be able to swing a deal of some lower level prospects for someone able to help now at the major league level (like Mancini). And, while Bauer has done well in Cleveland and become a great teammate over the past couple years, it’s time for the Indians to get what value they can out of him. As bleak as things look, I still don’t think the Indians are too far from contention, but they need some offensive help, especially in the slugging category, for this year and/or 2020-2021, if they hope to surround Lindor with the help he needs to lead the team to the playoffs.

One last note: I'm hoping we see Outfielder Daniel Johnson up with the Indians this year. If we can carry five outfielders, platoons of Johnson/Mercado, Naquin/Luplow and then Martin in center (if and until the time comes that Bradley Zimmer can show himself an everyday player there) have the potential to be a valuable set of players out there. At least, the way the season is shaping up, we should have a chance to test this idea out and see what potential might be in this group of young outfielders.

The 2019 Cleveland Indians through 40 Games: Are the Indians a Mediocre Team?

After a very quiet off-season, the Indians have begun the 2019 campaign with a very quiet offense and a team flirting with a .500 record after some significant injuries and unexpected slumps. It's important to remember that we don't really know who a team is until Memorial Day, but there are some pretty significant signs of concern for Indians' fans hoping to see a fourth straight Central Division title. There are also some clear positive signs to give us some hope:

The Good News:

Carlos Santana - Santana's triumphant return to Cleveland saw him get off to a blistering start in April, during which time he carried the Indians'  otherwise tepid offense. This was especially welcome because Santana is a notoriously slow starter. While he has cooled off of late, his track record shows that he will get on a hot streak again, and his first dominant stretch of the year could not have come at a better time for the Tribe.

A Solid, Reliable Bullpen - After last year's ridiculously unreliable pen, the Indians have received pretty reliable production from the arms they collected on the cheap for this year's pen. Brad Hand and Nick Wittgren have been dominant, Adam Cimber has had one bad outing but been excellent overall, Tyler Clippard looks like his usual solid self, and Oliver Perez, Tyler Olson and Dan Otero have been more good than bad. It would be nice to see Neil Ramirez move on (nice guy, bad pitcher) and the good news is that the Indians have a lights-out reliever in Triple-A in James Karinchak, just waiting for his call-up.

Shane Bieber Continues to Impress - Bieber had one terrible start, but beyond that, he has been very good again. We should not take for granted the Indians' ability to continue to produce elite starting pitchers. How difficult would this season be with Clevinger and Kluber hurt if the Indians had not developed another starter who would be the #2 or #3 starter on just about any other team in MLB?

Roberto Perez and Jefry Rodriguez Make the Yan Gomes Trade Look Good - With an 83 wRC+ and already a full Defensive win above replacement, Perez has been a more than adequate replacement for Gomes. And, Jefry Rodriguez has been a revelation as one of the players received back by the Indians in the Gomes' deal - with a 2.92 ERA, and 0.4 WAR, he has provided more value at the back of the rotation than anyone could have predicted. And, all this isn't even to mention Daniel Johnson, an outfielder who has been hitting well in Double-A Akron, and Andruw Monasterio, an infielder who was also playing well before an untimely injury at Akron. The Gomes deal was a good one, selling high on a position where the Indians had an adequate replacement and getting some exceptional value in return.

Leonys Martin is Alive! - With an 87 wRC+ and typically excellent defense in center-field, Martin's comeback from his near-death experience in 2018 is a storyline worth remembering no matter how the year goes from here. It's unfortunate that Martin has to play so often against left-handed pitching because of the lack of depth on the Indians' roster, as Martin has a 109 wRC+ against right-handers. Perhaps, a trade or a promotion may allow Luplow or Mercado to sub for Martin against LHP's, which would maximize his value.

The Bad News:

The Indians' Offense is Bad - So, there's no doubt about it. The Indians' offense has not been good.  They are 29th out of 30 in wRC+, 28th in Offensive WAR, 27th in wOBA... and the beat goes on and on. It's pretty clear that the Indians should have signed at least one more significant hitter, especially a right-handed slugger of some kind. As Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Avisail Garcia, Derek Dietrich and Hunter Pence rake for other teams, Indians fans can't help but feel cheated out of a legitimate opportunity to see any of these players helping this offense out of its prolonged doldrums. Look, I get that the Indians are unlikely ever to be the most profitable franchise in MLB. But, when you have Frankie Lindor on your team for what seems to be a limited amount of time as well as a rotation that might be the best in the game, it's worth investing aggressively in the team around them. While acknowledging their admirable willingness to invest in the team in past seasons, it was a true shame to see the Dolans give an edict to reduce payroll going into this season rather than maintaining the number the team had reached in 2017-2018, which would have allowed them to sign at least one more bat, if not two.

Jose Ramirez Has Not Figured it Out Yet - The most disappointing thing about 2019 for me has been Jose's continued struggles. After nose-diving for the last six weeks of 2018, Jose has not yet found his way back to punishing baseballs. It looks to my non-expert eye that he has been trying too hard to beat shifts played against him, which has had a drastically negative effect on his plate discipline, also. Lately, I've seen signs of him pulling the ball with authority, and he's been getting on base consistently over the last three weeks, so let's hope he's finally finding himself. But, there are no guarantees!

Injuries to Lindor, Clevinger and Kluber Have Hurt - Frankie has still been getting his timing back, and losing him for the first three weeks of the season after a calf and ankle injury was huge downer and clearly depressed an already depressing offense. Most significantly, however, the Indians' greatest strength, their pitching staff, lost an utterly dominant Clevinger to a significant back injury and then a struggling Kluber to a broken arm. The good news is that it looks like Clevinger should be able to come back by early June, and Kluber's renowned work ethic should give him as good a shot as anyone at coming back and regaining some of his Cy Young form. In the meantime, however, I'd like to see Zach Plesac, a young, right-hander excelling at Akron and now Columbus, get an opportunity at the #5 starter role at some point before Clevinger returns.

Losing Yandy Diaz and Michael Brantley Looks Bad - Michael Brantley signed with the Houston Astros, ending an exceptional era of baseball for him in Cleveland. Of course, there is no way to know how much mutual interest there was in keeping him with the Indians, but his 161 wRC+ would look pretty amazing in this lineup. Of course, his injury history may still flare up this year, or next, but I don't think any Cleveland fans would have been disappointed to see the Indians try harder to sign him for another 2-3 years. And, we definitely miss his bat. Additionally, the trade of Diaz for Jake Bauers (and salary relief) seems like it should pay off in the long-term for Cleveland - Bauers is only 23 and shows an elite eye at the plate and a solid hitting approach. But, Yandy is making the trade look pretty bad for the Indians at the moment with his 9 homers and 139 wRC+ (207 against LHP!). There is a slight chance that 27 year-old Yandy becomes a Kirby Puckett-lite type of guy for the next five years for Tampa. The best we could hope, in that case, is that Bauers also becomes a star corner-outfielder, in which case the trade might be a wash. But, it hurts not having Diaz in the middle of the Cleveland lineup and makes one question why the Indians' coaching staff was not able to unlock his power potential before the team decided to deal him.

The Indians Bunt and Run Themselves out of the Few Offensive Rallies They Have - In case you were not aware, sacrifice bunts do not, generally-speaking, increase your team's chances of scoring runs or winning games. Here is a link briefly breaking that down: Sac Bunts. Again, generally-speaking, stolen bases and hit-and-run plays have dramatically declined in baseball because the risks of giving up a base-runner and getting an out in these plays greatly outweigh the possible benefits. So, as hamstrung as Tito Francona is by ownership's desire to cut payroll for this season, he is not helping a struggling offense by allowing his hitters to attempt numerous bunts and his runners to attempt numerous steals. Here's hoping some stat-geek in the front office gets through to the otherwise excellent manager about this before he kills some more precious rallies with outdated strategies.

It doesn't help matters that the Twins have been playing like the best team in baseball during this time. I'm genuinely surprised by the pitching performances Minnesota has gotten from somewhat of a patchwork rotation and bullpen (minus Berrios, who is good). Who knows if they will regress, if injuries will work their way around to them, or if the Indians will make up some ground in head-to-head match-ups, but, for now, they look to be a formidable threat to win the division.

So, what do you do if the Indians are a .500 team? It's been a while since we haven't been rooting for a true contender, so you might need some reminders. Here's some things to keep in mind if things take a turn for the worse in the next 40 games:

1. Enjoy watching Frankie play - Dolan got a lot of flak for saying, "Enjoy him," in regards to Lindor, with fans taking his words to mean that Lindor won't be here forever because the Indians aren't going to give him a $350 million deal. And, I get it. I am upset to think about Frankie ever playing in another team's uniform and I think the Indians COULD pay him and still be competitive (they'd rely a LOT on the farm system, even more so than they already do). But, with all that said, we SHOULD enjoy watching Lindor play! When he is healthy, he is the best shortstop in baseball, and, odds are, we will see three-four months of that player this year. Appreciate every moment that he flashes that all-star smile of his wearing the colors of our team!

2. Look for player development - Focus on strides players like Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Jefry Rodriguez and Roberto Perez make. They will grow and develop this year, even if it's not ultimately enough to get the team to the promised land. Go to minor-league games and watch players like Plesac, Karinchak, Oscar Mercado, Yu Chang and Bobby Bradley work their way to Cleveland from Columbus, Mitch Longo, Daniel Johnson, Eli Morgan, Rob Kaminsky, Aaron Civale and Ernie Clement from Akron, or Tyler Freeman, Will Benson, Bo Naylor, Luis Oviedo and others from Lake County. There are a lot of fun players to be excited about in the farm system, and more on their way from Arizona and the Dominican Summer League! The cupboard is not bare, and the more that the Indians' players develop, the better chance next year's team has of competing, and the better odds the Indians have of making a significant trade for a proven veteran.

3. Find some other good baseball storylines to follow - I like to follow the Angels on the side, with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani providing some elite talent on a middling team whose Twitter account recently used an Emperor's New Groove quote (they get me). I also am excited to see the Rays competing with the payroll giants of the Red Sox and Yankees, and the Padres try to hang with the Dodgers. I want to see Vlad, Jr. start hitting for the Blue Jays, Acuna find his way on the Braves, and see if Cody Bellinger can put up an all-time season for the Dodgers. The game has so many great players, so if the Indians are depressing you, find another fun team/player to casually root for.

4. Keep perspective - We just had a baby and I'll get to take my son to his first baseball game at some point this summer. Baseball is a long journey, but even if 2019 ends up as a lost season for the Tribe, I'm still confident Elliot will see them compete in the playoffs before too long with the excellent organization Cleveland has. Also, on another note, whenever I feel a little bad about my team losing a game, I like to listen to Elevation Worship's song "Resurrecting." Whenever I sing, to Jesus, "Your Name, Your Name is Victory," I'm reminded that the only victory that matters has already been won. Everything else just doesn't really matter in the end.

5. Celebrate each win for itself - A win is a win! I'm not really sure I would have enjoyed a World Series win anymore than I enjoyed the 22-game win streak. I'm not even sure I would have enjoyed it more than I enjoyed seeing Rajai Davis hit a homer off of Aroldis Chapman. Just have fun when the Indians win, and don't borrow trouble from yesterday or tomorrow's game. Baseball is great because each day brings new hope, no matter how badly you've played the day before. Let that truth help YOU make today a better day than yesterday!