After a very quiet off-season, the Indians have begun the 2019 campaign with a very quiet offense and a team flirting with a .500 record after some significant injuries and unexpected slumps. It's important to remember that we don't really know who a team is until Memorial Day, but there are some pretty significant signs of concern for Indians' fans hoping to see a fourth straight Central Division title. There are also some clear positive signs to give us some hope:
The Good News:
Carlos Santana - Santana's triumphant return
to Cleveland saw him get off to a blistering start in April, during which time
he carried the Indians' otherwise tepid
offense. This was especially welcome because Santana is a notoriously slow starter.
While he has cooled off of late, his track record shows that he will get on a
hot streak again, and his first dominant stretch of the year could not have
come at a better time for the Tribe.
A Solid, Reliable Bullpen - After last year's ridiculously
unreliable pen, the Indians have received pretty reliable production from the
arms they collected on the cheap for this year's pen. Brad Hand and Nick
Wittgren have been dominant, Adam Cimber has had one bad outing but been
excellent overall, Tyler Clippard looks like his usual solid self, and Oliver
Perez, Tyler Olson and Dan Otero have been more good than bad. It would be nice
to see Neil Ramirez move on (nice guy, bad pitcher) and the good news is that
the Indians have a lights-out reliever in Triple-A in James Karinchak, just
waiting for his call-up.
Shane Bieber Continues to Impress - Bieber had one terrible
start, but beyond that, he has been very good again. We should not take for
granted the Indians' ability to continue to produce elite starting pitchers.
How difficult would this season be with Clevinger and Kluber hurt if the
Indians had not developed another starter who would be the #2 or #3 starter on
just about any other team in MLB?
Roberto Perez and Jefry Rodriguez Make the Yan Gomes Trade
Look Good - With an 83 wRC+ and already a full Defensive win above replacement,
Perez has been a more than adequate replacement for Gomes. And, Jefry Rodriguez
has been a revelation as one of the players received back by the Indians in the
Gomes' deal - with a 2.92 ERA, and 0.4 WAR, he has provided more value at the
back of the rotation than anyone could have predicted. And, all this isn't even
to mention Daniel Johnson, an outfielder who has been hitting well in Double-A
Akron, and Andruw Monasterio, an infielder who was also playing well before an
untimely injury at Akron. The Gomes deal was a good one, selling high on a
position where the Indians had an adequate replacement and getting some
exceptional value in return.
Leonys Martin is Alive! - With an 87 wRC+ and typically
excellent defense in center-field, Martin's comeback from his near-death
experience in 2018 is a storyline worth remembering no matter how the year goes
from here. It's unfortunate that Martin has to play so often against
left-handed pitching because of the lack of depth on the Indians' roster, as
Martin has a 109 wRC+ against right-handers. Perhaps, a trade or a promotion
may allow Luplow or Mercado to sub for Martin against LHP's, which would
maximize his value.
The Bad News:
The Indians' Offense is Bad - So, there's no doubt about it.
The Indians' offense has not been good.
They are 29th out of 30 in wRC+, 28th in Offensive WAR, 27th in wOBA...
and the beat goes on and on. It's pretty clear that the Indians should have
signed at least one more significant hitter, especially a right-handed slugger
of some kind. As Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Avisail Garcia, Derek Dietrich and
Hunter Pence rake for other teams, Indians fans can't help but feel cheated out
of a legitimate opportunity to see any of these players helping this offense out
of its prolonged doldrums. Look, I get that the Indians are unlikely ever to be
the most profitable franchise in MLB. But, when you have Frankie Lindor on your
team for what seems to be a limited amount of time as well as a rotation that
might be the best in the game, it's worth investing aggressively in the team
around them. While acknowledging their admirable willingness to invest in the
team in past seasons, it was a true shame to see the Dolans give an edict to
reduce payroll going into this season rather than maintaining the number the
team had reached in 2017-2018, which would have allowed them to sign at least
one more bat, if not two.
Jose Ramirez Has Not Figured it Out Yet - The most
disappointing thing about 2019 for me has been Jose's continued struggles.
After nose-diving for the last six weeks of 2018, Jose has not yet found his
way back to punishing baseballs. It looks to my non-expert eye that he has been
trying too hard to beat shifts played against him, which has had a drastically
negative effect on his plate discipline, also. Lately, I've seen signs of him
pulling the ball with authority, and he's been getting on base consistently
over the last three weeks, so let's hope he's finally finding himself. But,
there are no guarantees!
Injuries to Lindor, Clevinger and Kluber Have Hurt - Frankie
has still been getting his timing back, and losing him for the first three
weeks of the season after a calf and ankle injury was huge downer and clearly
depressed an already depressing offense. Most significantly, however, the
Indians' greatest strength, their pitching staff, lost an utterly dominant
Clevinger to a significant back injury and then a struggling Kluber to a broken
arm. The good news is that it looks like Clevinger should be able to come back
by early June, and Kluber's renowned work ethic should give him as good a shot
as anyone at coming back and regaining some of his Cy Young form. In the
meantime, however, I'd like to see Zach Plesac, a young, right-hander excelling
at Akron and now Columbus, get an opportunity at the #5 starter role at some
point before Clevinger returns.
Losing Yandy Diaz and Michael Brantley Looks Bad - Michael
Brantley signed with the Houston Astros, ending an exceptional era of baseball
for him in Cleveland. Of course, there is no way to know how much mutual
interest there was in keeping him with the Indians, but his 161 wRC+ would look
pretty amazing in this lineup. Of course, his injury history may still flare up
this year, or next, but I don't think any Cleveland fans would have been
disappointed to see the Indians try harder to sign him for another 2-3 years.
And, we definitely miss his bat. Additionally, the trade of Diaz for Jake
Bauers (and salary relief) seems like it should pay off in the long-term for
Cleveland - Bauers is only 23 and shows an elite eye at the plate and a solid
hitting approach. But, Yandy is making the trade look pretty bad for the
Indians at the moment with his 9 homers and 139 wRC+ (207 against LHP!). There
is a slight chance that 27 year-old Yandy becomes a Kirby Puckett-lite type of
guy for the next five years for Tampa. The best we could hope, in that case, is
that Bauers also becomes a star corner-outfielder, in which case the trade
might be a wash. But, it hurts not having Diaz in the middle of the Cleveland
lineup and makes one question why the Indians' coaching staff was not able to
unlock his power potential before the team decided to deal him.
The Indians Bunt and Run Themselves out of the Few Offensive
Rallies They Have - In case you were not aware, sacrifice bunts do not,
generally-speaking, increase your team's chances of scoring runs or winning
games. Here is a link briefly breaking that down: Sac Bunts. Again,
generally-speaking, stolen bases and hit-and-run plays have dramatically
declined in baseball because the risks of giving up a base-runner and getting
an out in these plays greatly outweigh the possible benefits. So, as hamstrung
as Tito Francona is by ownership's desire to cut payroll for this season, he is
not helping a struggling offense by allowing his hitters to attempt numerous
bunts and his runners to attempt numerous steals. Here's hoping some stat-geek
in the front office gets through to the otherwise excellent manager about this
before he kills some more precious rallies with outdated strategies.
It doesn't help matters that the Twins have been playing
like the best team in baseball during this time. I'm genuinely surprised by the
pitching performances Minnesota has gotten from somewhat of a patchwork
rotation and bullpen (minus Berrios, who is good). Who knows if they will
regress, if injuries will work their way around to them, or if the Indians will
make up some ground in head-to-head match-ups, but, for now, they look to be a
formidable threat to win the division.
So, what do you do if the Indians are a .500 team? It's been
a while since we haven't been rooting for a true contender, so you might need
some reminders. Here's some things to keep in mind if things take a turn for
the worse in the next 40 games:
1. Enjoy watching Frankie play - Dolan got a lot of flak for
saying, "Enjoy him," in regards to Lindor, with fans taking his words
to mean that Lindor won't be here forever because the Indians aren't going to
give him a $350 million deal. And, I get it. I am upset to think about Frankie
ever playing in another team's uniform and I think the Indians COULD pay him
and still be competitive (they'd rely a LOT on the farm system, even more so
than they already do). But, with all that said, we SHOULD enjoy watching Lindor
play! When he is healthy, he is the best shortstop in baseball, and, odds are,
we will see three-four months of that player this year. Appreciate every moment
that he flashes that all-star smile of his wearing the colors of our team!
2. Look for player development - Focus on strides players
like Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Jefry Rodriguez
and Roberto Perez make. They will grow and develop this year, even if it's not
ultimately enough to get the team to the promised land. Go to minor-league
games and watch players like Plesac, Karinchak, Oscar Mercado, Yu Chang and
Bobby Bradley work their way to Cleveland from Columbus, Mitch Longo, Daniel
Johnson, Eli Morgan, Rob Kaminsky, Aaron Civale and Ernie Clement from Akron,
or Tyler Freeman, Will Benson, Bo Naylor, Luis Oviedo and others from Lake
County. There are a lot of fun players to be excited about in the farm system,
and more on their way from Arizona and the Dominican Summer League! The
cupboard is not bare, and the more that the Indians' players develop, the
better chance next year's team has of competing, and the better odds the
Indians have of making a significant trade for a proven veteran.
3. Find some other good baseball storylines to follow - I
like to follow the Angels on the side, with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani
providing some elite talent on a middling team whose Twitter account recently
used an Emperor's New Groove quote (they get me). I also am excited to see the
Rays competing with the payroll giants of the Red Sox and Yankees, and the
Padres try to hang with the Dodgers. I want to see Vlad, Jr. start hitting for
the Blue Jays, Acuna find his way on the Braves, and see if Cody Bellinger can
put up an all-time season for the Dodgers. The game has so many great players,
so if the Indians are depressing you, find another fun team/player to casually
root for.
4. Keep perspective - We just had a baby and I'll get to
take my son to his first baseball game at some point this summer. Baseball is a
long journey, but even if 2019 ends up as a lost season for the Tribe, I'm
still confident Elliot will see them compete in the playoffs before too long
with the excellent organization Cleveland has. Also, on another note, whenever
I feel a little bad about my team losing a game, I like to listen to Elevation
Worship's song "Resurrecting." Whenever I sing, to Jesus, "Your
Name, Your Name is Victory," I'm reminded that the only victory that
matters has already been won. Everything else just doesn't really matter in the
end.
5. Celebrate each win for itself - A win is a win! I'm not
really sure I would have enjoyed a World Series win anymore than I enjoyed the
22-game win streak. I'm not even sure I would have enjoyed it more than I
enjoyed seeing Rajai Davis hit a homer off of Aroldis Chapman. Just have fun
when the Indians win, and don't borrow trouble from yesterday or tomorrow's
game. Baseball is great because each day brings new hope, no matter how badly
you've played the day before. Let that truth help YOU make today a better day
than yesterday!
No comments:
Post a Comment