Cleveland Indians at a Crossroads: Which path do they take?

2019 is shaping up to be a disappointing year to be a Cleveland Indians’ fan. Our stars are vastly under-performing and the roster was too thin to sustain these kind of set-backs in the first place. From Jose Ramirez’s disastrous season so far, to Kluber’s ineffective April and Bauer’s ineffective May, to Carrasco’s consistent inconsistency, to Jason Kipnis’s aged ineptitude, to Jake Bauers’ lack of power or consistent hitting… the problems are too numerous to mention. I am officially going on record as thinking that the Indians need to fire hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo. There are too many players who have not met expectations at the plate and who show no signs of adjusting. In fact, I am pretty close to admitting that the Indians need to move on from Tito (they won’t), but, at the very least, Tito needs to get some more help: help that is better versed in the analytical, data-driven side of the game, and to whom the future Hall of Fame manager will be willing to listen.

With that bleak assessment aside, the Indians are at a bit of a crossroads. After the next couple weeks, with series against the Red Sox, Yankees, and Twins, the Indians have the potential to be 15 or more games out of first, if they continue to play at their current level. It would still be mid-June, which leaves time for a spectacular comeback to at least make a bid for a wildcard berth. But, the Indians really need to decide whether or not to shore up their roster for a run in 2019, or turn their attention to 2020 and beyond. Here are the three basic scenarios I see as a possibility:

1. Reinforce for 2019 – Trade prospects for 1-2 hitters who can help shore up the Indians’ lineup for 2019.
2. Retool for 2020 – Trade a combination of major league players – likely Trevor Bauer, Leonys Martin and possibly Brad Hand – and prospects for players who can help in 2020 and beyond.3. Rebuild for 2022 – Trade any major leaguer with value for prospects – Bauer, Martin, Hand, Lindor, Nick Wittgren and possibly Carlos Carrasco and Carlos Santana would be dealt.

My suggested path forward would be to retool for 2020. If the team bounces back and makes a move this year, great, but I think our best hope is to surround Lindor and our pitching staff with some more offensive help for 2020 that would also be under control for 2021 and beyond when Lindor may be gone. With that in mind, here are some possible deals I think the Indians could be offered, depending on which direction they decide to go:

Reinforce for 2019 Trade 1 – Indians deal RHP Luis Oviedo and RHP Jerson Ramirez for Trey Mancini, 1B/OF from Baltimore.
Trade 2 – Indians deal 3B Nolan Jones and RHP Eli Morgan for Anthony Rendon, 3B from Washington.
Trade 3 – Indians deal RF Will Benson for OF Adam Jones from Arizona.

Summary: If the Indians decide to go “all-in” to either catch the Twins or make the wildcard game in 2019, they need to acquire at least three significant hitters. Getting Mancini, Rendon and Jones would effectively remake the 2019 lineup (and require benching or cutting Kipnis and moving Jose Ramirez to second), but it might just be enough to turn things around offensively. It would come at a cost, clearly, with the Indians giving up their best prospect for Rendon as well as several prominent pitching prospects in Oviedo, Morgan and Ramirez. Former top-pick Benson has a high strikeout rate, but is hitting the cover off the ball at Lake County and should be of interest to the Diamondbacks.

Retool for 2020 Trade 1 – Indians deal RHP Luis Oviedo and RHP Jerson Ramirez for Trey Mancini, 1B/OF from Baltimore.
Trade 2 – Indians deal RHP Trevor Bauer and OF Leonys Martin for Luis Urias, 2B and Austin Allen, C from San Diego.
Trade 3 – Indians deal LHP Brad Hand for OF Tyler O’Neil and RHP Ryan Helsley from St. Louis.

Summary: These trades allow the Indians to acquire players who are either established major leaguers or prospects near the majors under team control for a significant period of time. Urias immediately steps into Kipnis’s spot at second, Mancini provides a right-handed bat with pop for the middle of the order, and O’Neil offers another chance at finding a solid corner outfielder with some power. Additionally, Austin Allen offers some pop at catcher or at first if he can’t make it work defensively behind the plate, and Helsley looks like a reliever with real value. I think trades like this would make 2020 look a lot more promising. It IS a significant return for Hand, as I would only trade him if we can get an overpay. The Indians have some promising relievers in Double and Triple A, so I think the bullpen will be all right without Hand. However, I’d only deal him if we get back multiple players ready to help right away at the major league level.

Rebuild for 2022 Trade 1 – Indians deal RHP Trevor Bauer and OF Leonys Martin for Luis Urias, 2B, Logan Allen, LHP and Austin Allen, C from San Diego.
Trade 2 – Indians deal SS Francisco Lindor for SS Wander Franco, RF Jesus Sanchez and LHP Matthew Liberatore from Tampa Bay
Trade 3 – Indians deal RHP Carlos Carrasco for RF Alex Kiriloff and RHP Brusdar Graterol from Minnesota.
Trade 4 – Indians deal LHP Brad Hand for C Keibert Ruiz from Los Angeles Dodgers.

Summary: This is the equivalent of a fire-sale. And, it might also include, as stated above, trades of Santana and Wittgren, if the Indians can find takers. However, the returns for these deals would be significant and provide help both immediately and for 2021 and beyond. If the Indians deal Lindor this year, which I DO NOT recommend, they need to get a crazy return. Perhaps the Rays would pay that kind of return, with their future in Tampa Bay uncertain, and a real chance this year to challenge for a division title. Perhaps the Twins would give up two legitimate prospects for a chance at a starter with elite stuff to help them on their amazing run this year. Each Bauer trade assumes the Padres are wanting to go all in for 2019-2020, and that’s not a sure thing. And, maybe the Dodgers would give up the best catching prospect in baseball to see if Hand could push their team over the top for a World Series run (I feel this last trade is the most unlikely of the bunch). This kind of rebuild is incredibly tough on fans, but these kind of prospects in return would make the Indians the favorites to be division and World Series contenders again in a relatively short amount of time.

I’ll be shocked if this July isn’t active for the Indians. At the very least, I believe Trevor Bauer will be dealt. I also HOPE that they will be able to swing a deal of some lower level prospects for someone able to help now at the major league level (like Mancini). And, while Bauer has done well in Cleveland and become a great teammate over the past couple years, it’s time for the Indians to get what value they can out of him. As bleak as things look, I still don’t think the Indians are too far from contention, but they need some offensive help, especially in the slugging category, for this year and/or 2020-2021, if they hope to surround Lindor with the help he needs to lead the team to the playoffs.

One last note: I'm hoping we see Outfielder Daniel Johnson up with the Indians this year. If we can carry five outfielders, platoons of Johnson/Mercado, Naquin/Luplow and then Martin in center (if and until the time comes that Bradley Zimmer can show himself an everyday player there) have the potential to be a valuable set of players out there. At least, the way the season is shaping up, we should have a chance to test this idea out and see what potential might be in this group of young outfielders.